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5. A couple decides to have 3 children. If none of the 3 is a girl, they will try again; and if they still don't get a girl, they will try once more. If the random variable \( X \) denotes the number of children the couple will have following this scheme, then what is the expected value of \( X \) ?

Ask by Greene Pritchard. in Tanzania
Dec 04,2024

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The expected value of \( X \) is \( \frac{25}{32} \) or approximately 0.78125.

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To find the expected value of \( X \), we must take into account the various scenarios the couple can encounter based on their children’s genders. 1. They have 3 boys (probability \( \frac{1}{8} \), since the probability of having a boy or a girl is \( \frac{1}{2} \)): In this case, they'll try again, leading to a total of \( 3 + 3 = 6 \) children if they again get 3 boys (probability \( \frac{1}{8} \)), or stop if they have a girl. 2. They have 2 boys and 1 girl (probability \( \frac{3}{8} \)): They stop after having 3 children. Total children = 3. 3. They have 1 boy and 2 girls (probability \( \frac{3}{8} \)): They also stop after 3 children. Total children = 3. 4. They have 3 girls (probability \( \frac{1}{8} \)): This scenario is impossible as they would not need to try again. Now we calculate the expected value: - If they have 3 boys: with a probability of \( \frac{1}{8} \), they continue, potentially leading to up to 6 children. - If they have any at least one girl in the initial 3: with a probability of \( \frac{7}{8} \), they stop and have 3 children. Let’s compute the expected number of children. Define \( E \) as the expected value: \[ E = P(\text{3 boys}) \cdot E(X|3 \text{ boys}) + P(\text{at least 1 girl}) \cdot E(X| \text{ at least 1 girl}) \] Calculating: \[ E(X | 3 \text{ boys}) = 6 \cdot P(\text{3 boys}) + (3 \cdot P(\text{initial 3}) = 6 \cdot \frac{1}{8} + 3 \cdot \frac{7}{8} \] Calculating the results: \[ E = \left(\frac{1}{8} \cdot 6\right) + \left(\frac{7}{8} \cdot 3\right) = \frac{6}{8} + \frac{21}{8} = \frac{27}{8} \] Thus, the expected value of \( X \), the number of children they will have, is \( \frac{27}{8} \) or \( 3.375 \). So on average, the couple can expect to have around 3.4 children following this scheme!

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