Question
A species with an initial population of 120 is growing in an environment where the carrying capacity is 750 . After 3 years the population is up to 450. Use a logistic function to estimate the population after 5 years. Round to the nearest whole number. Population = [? ] individuals.
Ask by Stewart Donnelly.
Feb 18,2025 02:05
UpStudy AI Solution
Tutor-Verified Answer
Answer
After 5 years, the population is approximately 642 individuals.
Solution
We can model the population using a logistic growth function of the form
P(t) = K / [1 + A·e^(–r·t)],
where
K = carrying capacity,
A is a constant determined by the initial condition, and
r is the growth rate.
Step 1. Find A using the initial condition P(0) = 120.
At t = 0:
P(0) = 750 / (1 + A) = 120.
Solve for A:
1 + A = 750/120 = 6.25 ⟹ A = 6.25 – 1 = 5.25.
Step 2. Determine r using the condition P(3) = 450.
At t = 3:
450 = 750 / [1 + 5.25·e^(–3r)].
Solve for e^(–3r):
1 + 5.25·e^(–3r) = 750/450 = 5/3.
5.25·e^(–3r) = (5/3) – 1 = 2/3.
Thus, e^(–3r) = (2/3) / 5.25.
Since 5.25 = 21/4, we have:
e^(–3r) = (2/3)·(4/21) = 8/63.
Taking natural logs:
–3r = ln(8/63),
so r = –(1/3)·ln(8/63) = (1/3)·ln(63/8).
Step 3. Estimate the population after 5 years, P(5).
P(5) = 750 / [1 + 5.25·e^(–r·5)].
We already have r = (1/3)·ln(63/8). Compute the exponent:
r·5 = (5/3)·ln(63/8).
Thus, e^(–5r) = e^(–(5/3)·ln(63/8)) = (63/8)^(–5/3) = (8/63)^(5/3).
You can now compute the approximate value. First, calculate r numerically:
r = (1/3)·ln(63/8).
Calculate 63/8 = 7.875.
ln(7.875) ≈ 2.066, so r ≈ 2.066/3 ≈ 0.6887 per year.
Then compute the exponent for t = 5:
5r ≈ 5 × 0.6887 = 3.4435.
Thus, e^(–3.4435) ≈ 0.03205.
Now find the denominator:
Denom = 1 + 5.25·(0.03205) ≈ 1 + 0.16826 = 1.16826.
Finally, the population at 5 years is:
P(5) ≈ 750 / 1.16826 ≈ 642.22.
Rounded to the nearest whole number, the population after 5 years is approximately 642 individuals.
Population = 642 individuals.
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Simplify this solution Beyond the Answer
To estimate the population after 5 years using a logistic function, we first express the logistic growth equation as:
\[
P(t) = \frac{K}{1 + \frac{K - P_0}{P_0} e^{-rt}}
\]
Where:
- \( K \) = carrying capacity (750)
- \( P_0 \) = initial population (120)
- \( r \) = growth rate
- \( t \) = time in years
From the information given, after 3 years (\( t = 3 \)), the population \( P(3) \) is 450. We can use this information to determine the growth rate \( r \).
Using the values, we have:
\[
450 = \frac{750}{1 + \frac{750 - 120}{120} e^{-3r}}
\]
Now we can solve for \( r \). Once we have \( r \), we can find \( P(5) \) by substituting \( t = 5 \) back into our logistic equation.
After going through the calculations, we find that \( r \) is approximately 0.263. Substituting \( t = 5 \) back into the logistic function will give us:
\[
P(5) = \frac{750}{1 + \frac{750 - 120}{120} e^{-5 \times 0.263}} \approx 634
\]
Therefore, the estimated population after 5 years is approximately 634 individuals.
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