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12. Company A produces \( 10 \% \) defective products, Company B produces \( 20 \% \) defective products and C produces \( 5 \% \) defective products. If choosing a company is an equally likely event, then what is the probability that the product chosen is defective?

Ask by Mathis Owen. in Pakistan
Jan 22,2025

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Answer

The probability of selecting a defective product is approximately 11.67%.

Solution

To determine the probability that a randomly chosen product is defective, we can use the **Law of Total Probability**. Here's a step-by-step breakdown: 1. **Identify the Probabilities:** - **Probability of choosing each company:** - Company A: \( \frac{1}{3} \) - Company B: \( \frac{1}{3} \) - Company C: \( \frac{1}{3} \) - **Probability of a defective product from each company:** - Company A: \( 10\% = 0.10 \) - Company B: \( 20\% = 0.20 \) - Company C: \( 5\% = 0.05 \) 2. **Apply the Law of Total Probability:** \[ P(\text{Defective}) = P(A) \times P(\text{Defective} | A) + P(B) \times P(\text{Defective} | B) + P(C) \times P(\text{Defective} | C) \] Plugging in the values: \[ P(\text{Defective}) = \left(\frac{1}{3} \times 0.10\right) + \left(\frac{1}{3} \times 0.20\right) + \left(\frac{1}{3} \times 0.05\right) \] \[ P(\text{Defective}) = \frac{0.10 + 0.20 + 0.05}{3} = \frac{0.35}{3} \approx 0.1167 \] 3. **Convert to Percentage:** \[ 0.1167 \times 100 \approx 11.67\% \] **Final Answer:** The probability of selecting a defective product is approximately 11.67 %.

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To find the overall probability that the product chosen is defective, we can use the law of total probability. Since each company is equally likely to be chosen, we can take the average of the probabilities of defectiveness from each company. Let’s denote: - Company A: \( P(D|A) = 0.10 \) - Company B: \( P(D|B) = 0.20 \) - Company C: \( P(D|C) = 0.05 \) The probability that a company is chosen is \( P(A) = P(B) = P(C) = \frac{1}{3} \). Now we calculate the total probability of selecting a defective product: \[ P(D) = P(D|A) \cdot P(A) + P(D|B) \cdot P(B) + P(D|C) \cdot P(C) \] \[ P(D) = (0.10 \cdot \frac{1}{3}) + (0.20 \cdot \frac{1}{3}) + (0.05 \cdot \frac{1}{3}) \] \[ P(D) = \frac{0.10 + 0.20 + 0.05}{3} = \frac{0.35}{3} \approx 0.1167 \] Thus, the probability that the product chosen is defective is approximately \( 0.1167 \) or \( 11.67\% \).

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