Question
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Diseases tend to spread according to the exponential
growth model. In the early days of AIDS, the growth factor
(i.e. growth multiplier not growth rate) was around 2.2. In
1983, about 1900 people in the U.S. died of AIDS. If the
trend had continued unchecked, how many people would
have died from AIDS in 2005?
people
(Note: once diseases become widespread, they start to
behave more like logistic growth, but don’t worry about
that for the purpose of this exercise)

Ask by Malone Perkins. in the United States
Nov 12,2024

Upstudy AI Solution

Tutor-Verified Answer

Answer

Using the exponential growth model, if the trend had continued unchecked, approximately 7,988,178,000 people would have died from AIDS in 2005.

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Bonus Knowledge

To find the number of people who would have died from AIDS in 2005, we can use the exponential growth equation: , where is the initial number, is the growth factor, and is the number of years. For this scenario, , , and (from 1983 to 2005). Plugging those values in gives:
Performing the calculations yields approximately , indicating over a billion deaths if unchecked.
While this number feels staggering, it’s a powerful reminder of how rapidly diseases can proliferate. It’s important to consider public health measures and awareness that emerged post-1983, which helped to effectively manage and contain the AIDS epidemic. Understanding these dynamics can empower us to tackle future health crises with informed strategies.
The early recognition of HIV/AIDS and its transmission modes led to significant communities and governments working together to spread awareness and education. As prevention strategies like safer sex practices, needle exchange programs, and antiviral treatments became popular, the trajectory of the disease altered dramatically. This underscores the importance of active health interventions and policies in combating infectious diseases effectively.

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