Question
In a procuct labillyy ease, a company can settle out of court for a loss of
, or go to trial, loang
ir found gully and nothind II found not gully, Lawers for the company estimate the probabilly of a noigully vertict to be 0.8 , Complete pats (a) through (b) below.
a. What is the expected value of the ancunt the company can lose by taking the case to coutr
a. What is the expected value of the ancunt the company can lose by taking the case to coutr
Ask by Cole Wheeler. in the United States
Mar 20,2025
Upstudy AI Solution
Tutor-Verified Answer
Answer
The expected loss by taking the case to court is $240,000.
Solution
Step 1. Define the outcomes and probabilities
The company has two outcomes if it goes to trial:
- It loses
if found guilty. - It loses
if found not guilty.
The probability of a not guilty verdict is given as
. Therefore, the probability of a guilty verdict is
Step 2. Calculate the expected loss
The expected loss
when going to trial is calculated as:
Step 3. Perform the calculation
Thus, the expected value of the amount the company can lose by taking the case to court is:
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The Deep Dive
To calculate the expected value of the amount the company can lose by taking the case to court, we can use the formula for expected value, which considers both possible outcomes: a guilty verdict and a not guilty verdict.
- Guilty Verdict: The company loses $1,200,000 with a probability of
(since the probability of a not guilty verdict is ). - Not Guilty Verdict: The company loses $0 with a probability of
.
So, the expected value (EV) can be calculated as follows:
Thus, the expected value of the amount the company can lose by going to court is
.
Now, let’s wrap it all up:
The expected value of the amount the company can lose by taking the case to court is
.