Ross Campbell
08/25/2024 · Middle School

A construction company employs three sales engineers. Engineers 1,2 , and 3 estimate the costs of \( 15 \%, 25 \% \), and \( 60 \% \), respectively, of all jobs bid on by the company. For \( i=1,2,3 \), define \( E_{1} \) to be the event that a job is estimated by engineer \( i \). The following probabilities describe the rates at which the engineers make serious errors in estimating costs: \( P\left(\right. \) error \( \left.\mid E_{1}\right)=0.04, P\left(e r r o r \mid E_{2}\right)=0.03 \), and \( P\left(\right. \) error \( \left.\mid E_{3}\right)=0.02 \). Complete parts a through \( d \). c. If a particular bid results in a serious error in estimating job cost, what is the probability that the error was made by engineer 3 ? \( P\left(E_{3} \mid e r r o r\right)=\square \) (Round to the nearest thousandth as needed.) d. Based on the probabilities, given in parts a-c which engineer is most likely responsible for making the serious error?

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The probability that the error was made by engineer 3 given a serious error is approximately 0.4706 or \( \frac{8}{17} \).

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