Ian and Sophia flip a fair coin ten times and record their results; they find that the coin landed on heads eight times.
lan says, “This means the coin will land on heads of the time!” Sophia says, “I don’t think so; if we flip it many
more times, our results should be closer to it landing on heads about of the time.” Who is right? How do you know?
Choose the correct answer below.
A. Ian is right, because 8 out of 10 is .
B. lan is right, because a coin isn’t neccessarily heads of the time, and the sample probability is usually near
the population probability.
C. Sophia is right, because of the Law of Large Numbers (Bernoulli’s Theorem).
D. Sophia is right, because the coin should land on heads exactly of the time.

Ask by Parry Moran. in the United States

Jan 22,2025

Question

Ian and Sophia flip a fair coin ten times and record their results; they find that the coin landed on heads eight times.
lan says, “This means the coin will land on heads of the time!” Sophia says, “I don’t think so; if we flip it many
more times, our results should be closer to it landing on heads about of the time.” Who is right? How do you know?
Choose the correct answer below.
A. Ian is right, because 8 out of 10 is .
B. lan is right, because a coin isn’t neccessarily heads of the time, and the sample probability is usually near
the population probability.
C. Sophia is right, because of the Law of Large Numbers (Bernoulli’s Theorem).
D. Sophia is right, because the coin should land on heads exactly of the time.

Ask by Parry Moran. in the United States

Jan 22,2025

UpStudy AI · Accepted Answer

**C. Sophia is right, because of the Law of Large Numbers (Bernoulli's Theorem).**

**Explanation:**

Ian and Sophia flipped a fair coin 10 times and observed 8 heads, which is an 80% outcome in this small sample. However, this small number of trials can deviate significantly from the true probability due to random chance.

Sophia's perspective aligns with the **Law of Large Numbers**, which states that as the number of trials increases, the sample proportion (in this case, the percentage of heads) will converge to the expected probability (50% for a fair coin). While Ian's observation is correct for their specific set of 10 flips, Sophia is correct in asserting that with a much larger number of flips, the results should balance out closer to the true probability of 50%.

**Why the other options are incorrect:**

- **A.** While Ian correctly states that 8 out of 10 is 80%, he's incorrectly generalizing this small sample to the true probability of the coin.
  
- **B.** This option is confusingly worded and incorrectly attributes Ian's correctness based on the coin not necessarily being fair, which contradicts the premise that the coin is fair.
  
- **D.** Although Sophia is correct that the long-term probability approaches 50%, saying it should land "exactly" 50% of the time is misleading because individual trials can still vary.

**Final Answer:**

C. Sophia is right, because of the Law of Large Numbers (Bernoulli's Theorem).
Sophia is right because the Law of Large Numbers says that as the number of coin flips increases, the results will get closer to the true probability of 50% for heads.

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