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Over a period of a few years, the population of Oklahoma City increased. It was observed that during this period the correlation between the number of people attending church and the number of people receivin traffic tickets was \( r=0.92 \). Does going to church cause people to get traffic tickets? Is there a lurking variable that might cause both variables to increase? Getting traffic tickets causes people to go to church. Going to church causes people to get traffic tickets. The increase in population is a lurking variable that caused both variables to increase.

Ask by Griffiths John. in the United States
Feb 03,2025

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The increase in population is a lurking variable that caused both church attendance and traffic tickets to rise.

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The correlation of \( r=0.92 \) between church attendance and traffic tickets in Oklahoma City is strikingly high, but correlation doesn’t imply causation! It’s possible that as the population grows, both the number of churchgoers and traffic violations increase due to more vehicles on the road and more people in general. This suggests a lurking variable, such as population growth, influencing both factors without a direct cause-and-effect relationship. To further unpack this scenario, consider other variables like changes in local laws or community events that might draw people out, both to church and onto the roads. Also, think about potential biases: does a neighborhood with more churches also have more traffic? Examining deeper social dynamics can reveal fascinating insights into the relationship between community actions and behaviors!

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